Risk-adjusted performance forecasting of future key technology

نویسندگان

  • Juneseuk Shin
  • Chong Man Kim
چکیده

This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any form to anyone is expressly forbidden. The publisher does not give any warranty express or implied or make any representation that the contents will be complete or accurate or up to date. The accuracy of any instructions, formulae, and drug doses should be independently verified with primary sources. The publisher shall not be liable for any loss, actions, claims, proceedings, demand, or costs or damages whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with or arising out of the use of this material. A new way of identifying future key technologies based on a risk-adjusted technology performance measure is suggested for policymakers. Current key technologies are identified by patent citation network analysis. Employing growth curve fitting, we forecast the future growth path of these technologies, and evaluate their risk-adjusted future performance. Overcoming the weaknesses of return-only and current-focused key technology identification, our method can better inform policymakers and experts about both the return and risk of future key technologies, helping them to make better decisions.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Techn. Analysis & Strat. Manag.

دوره 25  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2013